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1.55pm – Addeyb
I started off looking at this race and thinking ‘it’s a bit early in the day to be getting stuck into a 6/4 shot’ so I was looking at Euchen Glen, Fox Chairman and Lord Glitters to try and get ADDEYB beat but you just come back to him.
The last two times he got beaten over this trip was by Lord North at Ascot and then by Magical before that so you’re going ‘that’s slightly better than this Listed race here’.
He could actually be at a really good price and Addeyb running at 85/90 per cent should be good enough.
2.30pm – Bernardo O’Reilly
I’m going for BERNARDO O’REILLY. This is potentially a stupid reason but this fella had about 27 duck eggs in a row – no form whatsoever – but then popped up with a big break, at big odds in a big field handicap at Doncaster.
I just think they may have found the key to him, somehow or other. He was quite well backed that day – well 25s into 18 – nibbled at, shall we say?
I just think that if they have found the key to him, and they didn’t know what it was before, then maybe he can go on a bit of a streak and be a hell of a handicapper.
He’ll be a big price. I imagine maybe 14/1, 16/1 or even 20/1 – that kind of price, so he could be good for a little sneaky each-way bet.
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The latest racing odds are on PaddyPower.com now3.05pm – Illykato
I’m trying to find a reason to get Umm Kulthum beaten. He’s favourite at a very short price but when you go through the rest of the race there are lots of holes in them.
I’ve picked out Setantii Girl at a big price – she’s interesting because she’s only had one run and was pretty impressive that day so could be a bit better than a 20/1 shot.
The other is ILLYKATO for Mick Channon with Tom Marquand on board. He will probably be second or third favourite but I was very impressed with the middle of his three runs, which was at Windsor.
I might just take a chance on Illykato at 5/1 or 6/1 as opposed to the favourite Umm Kulthum, but it does look obvious [to pick the latter].
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3.40pm – Barbill
You start by looking at Nahaar, and think ‘I’ve backed this horse about 20 times and he always lets me down’. He’s always favourite for these big field handicaps, so I’m not going to start with Nahaar anymore – even though he’ll probably go and win!
He’s too expensive for me to follow, so I’ve gone through the rest of the field and there’s a horse in there that I like called BARBILL. And that’s not just because I like the odd bar bill myself.
He’s a big price, and has won every two runs this season. I don’t know if that’s relevant or not, but he wasn’t placed last time out so he must be a certainty this time around!
He did Kimifive at Haydock, when I had Kimifive backed that day, and he was pretty brave – led from two furlongs out and kept seeing all challengers off, one after the other. That’s a trait that might stand him in good stead in a race like this. If he does hit the front, there will be loads finishing fast so he will have to be brave enough to keep his head down.
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Paddy Power’s Ayr bet summary – Saturday, September 19
1.55pm – Addeyb
2.30pm – Bernardo O’Reilly
3.05pm – Illykato
3.40pm – Barbill